Lebanese Shi'ite poll shows 66% favor state control of Hezbollah arms

Statistics Lebanon conducted a survey of 800 Lebanese Shi'ites in September that found 66.4 percent support handing Hezbollah's weapons to the Lebanese state. The results, reported in mid-October by Israel's KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org, suggest a change in the stance of the community that has traditionally served as the group's primary base. In the same poll, 29.6 percent of respondents said Hezbollah should retain its arsenal.

The data points to a preference for state authority in security matters. Seventy-one point one percent of those surveyed stated that decisions on war and peace should belong solely to the Lebanese state. Only 5.9 percent favored a larger role for Hezbollah's leadership in shaping the country's future. Confidence in the military establishment was also high, with 78.5 percent saying they trust the Lebanese Armed Forces. The army was named the best institution to guarantee long-term security by 51.1 percent of respondents, compared to 16.5 percent who chose Hezbollah.

Hezbollah's standing remains mixed despite these findings. Sixty-seven point four percent of respondents said the group failed to meet its goals in the war with Israel or achieved only some of them. Forty-two point one percent expressed disappointment, anger, or concern regarding the group's leadership and the consequences of the conflict. However, 59.5 percent still expressed some trust in the organization, including 37.1 percent who reported a great deal of trust. KAN's Roi Kais noted that the support networks and status Hezbollah has provided to the sect continue to sustain its strength as long as no other entity fills the vacuum.

Earlier data presented a different picture. Researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni of Israel's Institute for National Security Studies cited a May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International in which 87.5 percent of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. Only 7.9 percent supported giving up the group's weapons in that earlier poll. The discrepancy raises questions about how differences in wording or agenda may have shaped the results.

Mizrahi and Levanoni argued that weakening Hezbollah requires a stronger Lebanese army and financial support from Western and Gulf states. They said the state must replace the services the group provides to its followers. They also noted that intimidation has historically discouraged dissent within the community.

Local signs of wariness have emerged in recent months. In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan in their building, fearing it could be targeted in an Israeli strike. Hezbollah has announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere.

The group has suffered major military and leadership losses since the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024. A new war that began in March 2026 caused heavy destruction in villages in southern Lebanon. The next step involves whether the Lebanese state can offer security, reconstruction, and economic opportunity to address the discontent identified in the survey.