7,000 dead, but analyst says next US Iran war could be even deadlier

Danny Citrinowicz says a new phase of the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran is almost inevitable. The Israeli analyst predicts that fighting will restart once the U.S. midterm elections are concluded on November 3. He expects this third round to be more destructive than the two previous conflicts.

Citrinowicz spent over 20 years as an intelligence official in the Israeli military. He now works with the Institute for National Security Studies. He told CBC News that President Donald Trump has only bad and worse options in the Persian Gulf. He maintains his earlier view that attacking the regime will not cause a change of government but will instead drag the region into a wider conflict.

The current conflict began in June 2025. U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iranian nuclear facilities in a war that lasted 12 days. A fragile ceasefire ended that phase. Fighting returned in February following a large buildup of U.S. military forces. Israeli strikes targeted senior Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Citrinowicz expects the next round to target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communications. He specifically identified internet lines running beneath the Strait of Hormuz. He also raised the possibility that Iran could send land troops to attack Gulf states hosting U.S. bases. Countries like Kuwait and Bahrain are potential targets for limited attacks aimed at damaging the American economy.

Since the summer truce collapsed, both sides have largely avoided fresh strikes on bases or territory. The conflict has not gone quiet, however. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports. Iran continues to target commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. These actions have pushed up global energy costs. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran of trying to inflate oil prices before the midterms. He claimed on Truth Social that Iran was making up fake hits, mines, and other incidents.

A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed with Trump's assessment. The report stated that vessel attacks are meant to pressure Washington into meeting Iranian demands. Those demands include relief from sanctions, reparations for strike damage, the release of billions in frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks trying to restart talks without success.

Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution said the war has likely pushed Iran's leadership to double down on revolutionary ideology. She warned that retaliation would come from proxies such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. She predicted these groups could target soft economic sites like airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said Trump lacks a clear goal. He argued that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate.

The human toll is heavy. Western NGOs say more than 7,000 people have died in Iran. Lebanese media report over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members have been killed, mostly in Iranian strikes on Gulf bases. More than 70 Israelis have also died. Deaths have been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The New York Times reports that the Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan. It is unknown whether Trump will approve it.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job and bringing down the Iranian regime. He faces voters in the coming days in a close race. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government. The danger is that political calculation combines with an Iranian development that Netanyahu may inflate, producing an unnecessary attack.

Sadjadpour argued that diplomacy is not dead but has been narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims. He said Iran's government would compromise only under existential economic pressure paired with a clear diplomatic exit. If you're asking them to change their identity, that's not going to succeed, Sadjadpour said.