Israel Exit Polls Point to Deadlock as Neither Camp Has a Clear Path to a Coalition

Israelis voted in unprecedented numbers on Tuesday, but the message they sent may take weeks, or even months, to decode. Exit polls released at 10 p.m. by Channels 11, 12 and 13 showed the so-called change bloc ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc, while Likud emerged as the single largest party.

Neither camp, however, appeared to hold the partners it would need to form the government it promised. Taken together, the parties opposed to the outgoing government won a clear share of the projected seats, but they do not form a single bloc willing to govern together. The result, if it holds, is a parliamentary majority against the outgoing government, arriving 1,116 days after October 7, with no agreed replacement.

The Arab parties are at the center of that gap. The exit polls gave them a combined 17 to 18 seats, one of the election's biggest stories, and their strength helped deny Netanyahu a majority. Yet the change bloc's pledges against relying on them also complicate its ability to replace him. Their seats count as much as anyone else's, but the obstacle is whether other parties will enter a governing arrangement with them.

Both leaders are expected to claim victory. Netanyahu can point to Likud's lead over Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, which trailed by two or three seats in the polls. Eisenkot can point to the larger balance between the blocs. Netanyahu knows that the biggest party does not always govern: in 2009, Tzipi Livni's Kadima won one more seat than Likud, but he became prime minister because he could build a coalition and she could not.

Eisenkot now faces the question of whether he can repeat that feat. During the campaign he set four conditions for prospective partners that the Arab parties would be unlikely to meet. Even relying on Mansour Abbas's Ra'am party would not necessarily close the gap on the figures emerging Tuesday night, and support from the Joint List would raise further obstacles. The Arab parties also have their own voters and demands, and cannot simply be treated as missing seats in someone else's arithmetic.

Other routes carry their own costs. Bringing in the two haredi parties, projected to win 12 seats together, could deliver a majority, but would give them leverage over a government whose likely partners have promised meaningful changes to haredi conscription. Another option is a government of Likud, Yashar, Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad and Yisrael Beytenu, which would hold 67 seats on the projections without the haredi parties, the Arab parties, the hard-right Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionist Party, or the hard-left Democrats. If Netanyahu stays at Likud's helm, it would require his opponents to abandon pledges not to serve under him, and to settle who leads and on what terms.

The exit polls are only the opening frame for negotiations, and the votes must still be counted. If the broad picture holds, attention will quickly shift to which campaign promises survive contact with the results. Throughout the race, parties told voters whom they would and would not sit with, but when enough parties rule out enough others, the outcome can be a Knesset with no workable majority.

Those favoring compromise are likely to call it national responsibility, while opponents will call it betrayal. Netanyahu cannot credibly claim a vote of confidence from these projections, and his opponents still have to show they can turn their majority into a government. If politicians are unwilling to change their conditions, their partners or their promises, they may eventually ask voters to try again.