12 Knesset seats hinge on 640,000 first-time voters

Isrealis will cast ballots on Tuesday, October 27, in a parliamentary election where the choices of first-time voters could determine the outcome for up to 12 of the 120 Knesset seats. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that 640,000 citizens aged 18 to 22 are eligible to vote. This demographic constitutes nearly 10% of the total electorate, giving them a disproportionate influence on the final composition of the government.

Recent data suggests high participation among this group. A May survey by the Israel Democracy Institute found that between 80% and 95% of prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or probably cast a ballot. Secular Jewish youth expressed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents indicated intent to vote. By comparison, youth turnout in the 2024 US presidential election stood at 47%, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement. A separate poll conducted for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain they would vote, with another 19% thinking they would.

The political landscape for these voters is shaped by recent events. Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the Israel Democracy Institute, noted that these young people experienced junior high during the pandemic, witnessed the judicial reform protests, and lived through the October 7 attacks. She stated that this cohort is worried about their future. In both major surveys, national security and the cost of life ranked as the top concerns for both Jewish and Arab young voters.

Polling data reveals a mix of political leanings. An N12 poll from September 23 found that 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that same survey, 16% said they would vote for Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, and 14% would support Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud. Hoffman observed that while Jewish Israeli voters have generally moved rightward over the past two decades, military service can complicate these trends by prompting questions about war objectives.

Individual voters illustrate the diversity of opinion within this age group. Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old from Ramat Hasharon currently in an army preparation program in the Negev, plans to support either the Democrats or Yashar. She attributed the country's problems to the government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has held office since 2009 with a brief break between 2021 and 2022. Conversely, Omer Gross, a Jerusalem resident in a preparation program in the Golan, intends to vote for the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin, citing support for West Bank policies despite disagreements over Gaza.

Other young voters are focusing on specific structural changes. Tomer Shiloh, 18, from Herzliya, will vote for the opposition change bloc, seeking a government that requires ultra-Orthodox men to serve in the IDF and lowers living costs. A 22-year-old reservist, identified as Sgt. M due to IDF anonymity regulations, prioritizes universal service but leans toward the Democrats for economic reasons, including the cost of tuition and housing. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, an 18-year-old from Shef-Amra, seeks an Arab party that will close resource gaps and tackle crime in Arab communities.

The stakes extend beyond the immediate vote. The Israel Democracy Institute and the Yigal Allon Center co-sponsored an event in Tel Aviv where leading politicians addressed more than 1,000 first-time voters. Hoffman emphasized that Israel is a young country with a high birth rate, meaning high turnout among this group will make a difference in the legislative balance. The results will determine whether the current government retains power or faces a shift in the Knesset.

The election takes place against a backdrop of intense political activity. Mock elections at high schools indicated that students largely support Yashar and Beyachad, a party led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, with some support for Likud and little support for Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right party. As voters head to the polls, their decisions will reflect a generation that has navigated a pandemic, a war, and significant domestic unrest.