Israel Election Exit Polls Show Neither Netanyahu Nor Opposition Reaching a Majority

Israel's election produced no clear winner, according to exit polls released on Tuesday night by Channels 11, 12 and 13. All three projected that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition bloc seeking to unseat him would reach the 61-seat majority in the Knesset.

The opposition bloc, made up of Yashar, B'Yachad, Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats, was projected to win between 50 and 53 seats. Netanyahu's bloc was projected at around 50. Neither side appeared to have an obvious path to building a coalition.

The Joint List and Ra'am were projected to take a combined 17 to 18 seats, which could make Arab parties pivotal in coalition talks. Opposition leaders have largely ruled out governing with the Arab parties, with the exception of Yair Golan of the Democrats.

Netanyahu's Likud was projected to win 24 to 25 seats and remain the largest party in the next Knesset. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar was expected to receive 21 to 23 seats. Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad was projected as the third-largest party with 12 to 14 seats, while Golan's Democrats stood at 9 to 10 and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu at 7 to 9.

Within Netanyahu's bloc, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit was projected to win 6 to 7 seats, and the Religious Zionist Party-Zehut, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, 6 seats. The ultra-Orthodox parties were set to receive a combined 12 to 13 seats, with Shas at 6 and United Torah Judaism at 6 to 7.

Two small right-wing parties hovering near the electoral threshold, Ofer Winter's People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel's The Reservists-Economic party, were both projected to miss the required 3.25%. That could further complicate efforts by Netanyahu's bloc to secure a majority.

A unity government involving Netanyahu and Eisenkot appeared unlikely. Eisenkot has rejected serving under Netanyahu, including in a rotation arrangement, and other opposition leaders have also ruled out joining a coalition led by the prime minister. Eisenkot has called for the leader of the largest opposition party to be the bloc's candidate for prime minister, though no agreement on that has been announced.

The exit polls also raised the possibility of a minority government that could win a confidence vote without an absolute majority of 61 seats. Resistance within the opposition bloc to relying on Arab parties could complicate such a move. The deadlock could ultimately lead to another election, although coalition negotiations may still yield an agreement.

Voter turnout reached its highest level since at least 1973, according to Central Elections Committee records, which have tracked turnout at set times on Election Day since then. Exit polls have differed from final results in previous elections, and official results will be determined once all ballots are counted.