Arab turnout runs ahead of 2022 levels in Israel's election while haredi cities trail

Turnout in several Arab-majority cities in Israel had already exceeded final 2022 Knesset election totals by 6 p.m. on Tuesday, while predominantly haredi (ultra-Orthodox) cities were still below their previous marks, according to election-day figures.

In Umm al-Fahm, 56.1% of eligible voters had cast ballots by that hour, compared with a final turnout of 51.33% in 2022, a rise of 4.77 percentage points with several hours of voting left. Kafr Qasim reached 73.9%, up from 70.31%, and Nazareth stood at 58.4%, against 55.75% in the previous election.

The biggest jump among the four Arab-majority cities examined came in Rahat, where turnout hit 72.2%, compared with 59.54% in 2022. That is a difference of 12.66 percentage points.

The numbers worried right-wing leaders. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich reportedly worked together to boost turnout among their own supporters. "This is an emergency call! The future of our Jewish state is at stake," Netanyahu wrote on X. He urged people to vote for Likud, citing higher-than-usual turnout in the Arab sector and low turnout among right-wing voters. In a separate appeal, he warned that strong Arab participation could influence the outcome.

Turnout in several haredi cities, by contrast, remained far below final 2022 results. Bnei Brak stood at 64.3% at 6 p.m., compared with 77.27% in 2022, a gap of 12.97 percentage points. Elad recorded 71.2%, against 85.77% previously, and Modi'in Illit reached 69.8%, compared with 84.51%. Jerusalem, which has a large haredi population alongside other communities, was at 66.7%, already above its final 2022 figure of 63.37%.

Shas chairman Arye Deri also voiced concern about turnout among Arab and left-wing voters, warning of efforts to unseat the current government. "Tens of thousands of people came from abroad to vote, to topple the Torah rule," Deri said.

The strong Arab turnout came despite reports of possible disruptions at polling stations in Arab communities. The Association for Civil Rights in Israel (ACRI) warned on Tuesday that voting could be deliberately obstructed in several Arab towns, pointing to unusually slow processing of voters and long queues. It asked Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Noam Sohlberg to send inspectors to affected stations.

Delays were reported in Rahat, Tel Sheva, Laqiya, Segev Shalom, Kafr Kara, Tamra, Tira and other Arab localities. In Segev Shalom, police and Border Police personnel reportedly kept voters from entering a polling station compound even though relatively few people were inside, leaving about 200 waiting outside. Separately, the Adalah Legal Center for Arab Minority Rights in Israel asked the committee to urgently supply Arabic-language ballot slips that were reportedly missing from several stations. The reported disruptions have not been established as deliberate interference.

The full picture will only become clear once polling stations close, and haredi strongholds still have several hours to narrow the gap. The figures do not show how voters cast their ballots or whether the turnout patterns will change Knesset representation.