15 seats could determine Israel's next government as polls tighten

Pollsters project that Palestinian citizens of Israel will claim between 12 and 15 of the 120 seats in the Knesset during next week's election. This bloc represents approximately 20% of the total population and is positioned to act as the deciding factor in a fragmented parliament.

Current forecasts indicate that Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition will lose its parliamentary majority. The Jewish Israeli opposition bloc is also expected to fall short of the 61 seats required to form a government. Consequently, the 12 to 15 seats held by Arab representatives will determine which side holds the balance of power.

The Palestinian seats are split between two main groups. The Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List, an alliance of three smaller parties including Ta'al, are the primary contenders. Ahmad Tibi, the head of Ta'al and a Knesset member for over 20 years, stated that high turnout among the Arab community is a key tool to bring the current government down.

Most Jewish Israeli opposition parties have ruled out forming a coalition with Arab politicians. Netanyahu and his allies have campaigned against such alliances, using slogans like "Bibi or Tibi" on posters. Historically, only two Palestinian ministers have served in the government. Raleb Majadele held the sport portfolio for two years, and Issawi Frej served as regional coordinator for just over a year.

Despite previous pledges, coalitions have formed before. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a historic coalition with Naftali Bennett. Netanyahu himself previously opened coalition talks with Abbas. Mohammed, a prospective voter who manages staff at a hi-tech firm, believes the opposition will change its stance once the results are in. He described the outcome as pure mathematics, urging friends of all backgrounds to vote.

Political leaders acknowledge the difficulty of an alliance. Most opposition parties oppose a Palestinian state and support the settlement movement in the occupied West Bank. Tibi described his choice as selecting between two imperfect options, weighing Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir against the opposition. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, said fear is the biggest motivation for voters.

Abu Shehadeh stated that voters understand the danger if far-right leaders return to power. This sentiment is driven by the destruction in Gaza, militant violence in the West Bank, and rising discrimination inside Israel. Last month, the supreme court effectively forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article regarding the 7 October Hamas-led attacks. A motion to disqualify national security minister Itamar Ben Gvir over racist language was not upheld.

Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group noted that a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to speed up policies of ethnic cleansing and annexation. He described the vote as a measure of mitigation between a right-wing and a far-right government. The election takes place two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre, in which border police killed 49 residents who had broken an unknown curfew.