Record Arab Party Gains in Israeli Vote Fail to Translate Into Kingmaker Role

Arab-led parties in Israel are projected to win a record number of seats in the country's parliament, according to exit polls from Tuesday's election. The result makes them harder for the leading blocs to ignore, although observers say it does not make them kingmakers.

The latest projections suggest the Joint List and Ra'am could hold a combined 17 seats in the 120-member Knesset. "Probably the most important phenomenon of this election is the rise and the revival of the Arab vote," said Daniel Shek, a former Israeli ambassador. He added that the message is clear: such a large share of the electorate cannot be disregarded in Israeli political calculations.

No clear winner has emerged. Partial results give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc 54 seats and the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot 49. If Eisenkot's bloc teamed up with the Arab parties, it could reach the 61 seats needed for a majority and remove Netanyahu. The Times of Israel reported that the latest partial results would put such a combination at 66 seats.

Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have rejected partnering with the Arab-led lists, citing a lack of shared values. Honaida Ghanam, director general of the Palestinian Forum for Israeli Studies in Ramallah, told Al Jazeera the political veto against them is rooted in a racist structure that treats Arab citizens as illegitimate partners. Palestinian analyst Ahmed Najar said Eisenkot has imposed loyalty tests on the Arab parties and ruled out relying on them even though the arithmetic makes their support indispensable.

Observers disagree on how feasible a partnership would be. Najar argued it may be the only realistic route for Eisenkot to unseat Netanyahu. Omar Shaban of Palthink for Strategic Studies noted that Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas has signalled willingness to join an Eisenkot government on the condition that his party handles internal security matters. Abbas has also placed Jewish lawmaker Yoav Segalovitz in the number two spot on Ra'am's slate.

On Wednesday, Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen said his party is ready to take responsibility for bringing down Netanyahu's far-right coalition. Fellow Joint List leader Ahmad Tibi said the bloc was extending its hand to the opposition alliance, according to Israeli media. It remained unclear whether the Joint List would formally join a governing coalition.

Eisenkot has said he would consider partnering with any party that recognises Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, endorses the values of the Declaration of Independence and commits to national service for all Israelis, The Times of Israel reported. He has not said whether Ra'am would meet those criteria. He would also need to persuade prospective partners such as Naftali Bennett of the Together alliance and Avigdor Liberman of Yisrael Beytenu. Bennett, currently in third place, has said he now wants only "Zionist" parties in government. Yair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats, urged allies to drop their refusal to cooperate with Arab parties.

Precedent exists. After the 2021 elections, Ra'am's support was vital to forming the short-lived Bennett-Yair Lapid government, and Arab parties have backed governments from outside before, notably under Yitzhak Rabin. Netanyahu, for his part, told supporters on Tuesday that relying on anti-Zionist Arab parties would be "a shame and a disgrace."

Ghanam outlined four possible outcomes: a new election, an opposition minority government backed from outside by Arab parties, defections from the opposition to Netanyahu's bloc, or a national unity government. She said the election's most telling result was the resilience of Netanyahu's camp, which she called deeply entrenched and cohesive.

Najar said the reluctance of opposition parties reveals a deeper problem, arguing that a state cannot credibly call itself democratic while treating the elected representatives of more than one-fifth of its citizens as inherently illegitimate.