Arab Neighbors Watch Israel's Coalition Talks, but Expect Little Change in Foreign Policy

As Israeli politicians begin trying to assemble a governing coalition after an election with no clear winner, reaction from neighboring Arab countries has been muted or absent. It is still unclear whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will carry on with business as usual or whether his opponents will form a government expected to take a more moderate domestic course.

Whichever side prevails, the general view is that Israel's relations with Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and the Gulf states are unlikely to shift dramatically. Policy toward the Palestinians, an issue many Arab populations feel strongly about, is not expected to change much either. Egyptian politician Mostafa Bakry wrote on X that Netanyahu and his main rival Gadi Eisenkot "are two sides of the same coin," after exit polls appeared to point to an Eisenkot win, a result increasingly contested.

Beth Oppenheim of the European Council on Foreign Relations wrote last week that an Eisenkot government would probably be politically fragile. Its biggest differences would come at home, she said: halting the judicial overhaul, opening a state commission of inquiry into October 7 and passing a conscription law. On foreign policy, she argued, Netanyahu's post-October 7 security doctrine of pre-empting threats, operating far beyond Israel's borders and holding buffer zones in neighboring territories has been embraced by nearly all Jewish Israeli parties.

On the Palestinian question, a Likud campaign poster declared "The right or Palestine," suggesting opponents would be open to a Palestinian state. Observers consider that exaggerated, and believe the two-state solution is already dead. Oppenheim noted that, with one exception, all mainstream Jewish parties support or accept the settlement enterprise in some form. In August, Eisenkot himself said no Palestinian state would be established under a government he forms.

Still, a less hardline government could make some difference. Israel's Arab-led parties are thought to have increased their seats to around 19, and a new coalition may need their backing. Analysts say such a government might tone down religious messaging, show more flexibility on conditions for disarming Hamas, advance the next stage of the Gaza ceasefire agreed in late 2025 but barely implemented, and do more to contain settler violence in the West Bank. Mairav Zonszein of the International Crisis Group said that at best a new government could slow the acceleration of Israeli aggression seen over the past four years.

Saudi Arabia has hardened its conditions for normalization since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and Israel's military campaign, which has killed at least 70,000 Palestinians. Riyadh says there is no path without progress on Palestinian statehood. Last week the Saudis co-signed a communique with Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt calling Israel "the fundamental source of instability in the region and beyond." Analysts note that quiet cooperation exists, and that a less hardline Israeli government would make it easier for Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Egypt to acknowledge it.

In Syria, a study by the think tank Etana counted 1,996 Israeli ground operations in the southwest between January and September this year. Ksenia Svetlova of Chatham House said a withdrawal was unthinkable before the vote because it would have been seen as defeat, but a security agreement could become more probable under an anti-Netanyahu bloc, though it would take time. Talks mediated by the United States stalled after Israel apparently refused to pull back to the lines set by the 1974 disengagement agreement.

In Lebanon, commentators say the government would prefer an Eisenkot-led bloc as Beirut and Israel negotiate an Israeli withdrawal from the south and the disarming of Hezbollah. Eisenkot is widely seen as the originator of the "Dahiyeh Doctrine," yet many Lebanese still expect him to be easier to deal with, and some note that he, like President Joseph Aoun, once led his country's armed forces. A Lebanese official told L'Orient Today that when Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid replaced Netanyahu between 2021 and 2022, Lebanon was able to conclude a maritime agreement.