Lula rallies beach crowd as Brazil nears tight runoff

Tens of thousands of people gathered on Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday to support President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The event marked the final public rally before the presidential runoff vote scheduled for Sunday. Supporters filled the 2.5-mile stretch of sand in red clothing, creating a scene that organizers described as a carnival-like procession.

The contest is statistically unusual. Lula finished second in the first round of voting on 4 October with 45% of the vote, trailing Flávio Bolsonaro’s 47%. Since democracy was restored in Brazil in the 1980s, no candidate who lost the first round has won the subsequent runoff. A victory for Lula would break this historical pattern. Current polls indicate the race is effectively tied, with most analysts viewing Bolsonaro as the slight favorite.

Recent events appear to have shifted momentum for the incumbent. Lula gained ground in opinion polls following scandal reports involving his opponent. Last week, the magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists during the peak of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak. This incident occurred while Bolsonaro’s father, Jair, was in power.

The political stakes are high for many voters. Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Some democratic supporters fear that if his son wins, Jair Bolsonaro could be released or return to government. Media reports suggest that other jailed plotters might receive senior positions in the military or police forces if the Bolsonaro camp prevails.

Organizing efforts have been intense. A WhatsApp group called "Lula's Army" has grown to 10 million members since the first round. Activists have spent days persuading first-round abstainers and Bolsonaro supporters to switch sides. In the crowd, truck driver Josias Silva, 61, held a sign predicting Lula would win more than 60% of the vote, a figure higher than current poll projections.

Bolsonaro’s supporters held their own rallies in other cities. In Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais, thousands wore yellow football jerseys and waved both Brazilian and US flags. Minas Gerais is the country’s second-largest electorate. No candidate has won the presidency without carrying this state. Bolsonaro led the first-round voting there by just under 5%.

The debate centers heavily on public safety. Bolsonaro has campaigned on a tough stance against violent crime. His supporters argue that his father’s policies on gun ownership allowed citizens to defend themselves. However, security experts note that those policies diverted many firearms to criminal gangs. Lula has since tightened gun regulations, and his supporters point to Bolsonaro’s documented ties to paramilitary militias in Rio.