Tel Aviv economist warns next week's vote may worsen Israel's record exodus

An economist at Tel Aviv University warned that Israel's national election scheduled for next week could accelerate a record trend of citizens leaving the country. Itai Ater, a professor at the Coller School of Management, stated that the upcoming vote is a pivotal moment for the nation's demographic stability. He noted that the numbers of people departing are already at historic highs and could climb sharply if the political status quo remains unchanged. Ater described the situation as a strategic risk for Israel's standing as a democracy and a liberal country in the Middle East.

The warning follows a study published in February by Ater and colleagues using data from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The research found that 99,000 Israelis left the country between January 2023 and December 2024. The researchers defined departure as being away for at least three consecutive months and spending more than 270 days outside the country during the first year of leaving. Approximately 50,000 people departed in 2023, while 49,000 left in 2024. Ater added that preliminary figures indicate this pattern of sustained emigration continued through 2025.

These departures occurred during a period of intense turmoil for the population of about 10 million. The year 2023 included the Hamas attack on southern Israel that killed roughly 1,200 people and saw 250 others taken hostage. Israel responded with a major military campaign in the Gaza Strip. Although a fragile ceasefire took effect in October 2025, Israel still controls approximately 60 percent of the enclave and conducts regular military operations there. Ater said these conditions lead many Israelis to question whether they want to raise their children in the country.

The current election pits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving leader in the country's history, against a rival bloc. Polls suggest Netanyahu's far-right coalition will fall short of the 61 Knesset seats required to govern. A competing bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party is also expected to lack a majority. Because governing coalitions are necessary, the political maneuvering often begins after the vote, a process in which Netanyahu has long been considered skilled.

Researchers are concerned about the specific professions of those leaving. The study identified a sharp rise in departures among doctors, Ph.D. holders, and engineers in 2023 and 2024. Net departures included 2,360 engineers and 509 doctors. Ater emphasized that Israel's economy relies heavily on this human capital, particularly in the technology industry, academia, and health care sectors.

Business leaders are also feeling the pressure. Liam Schwartz, who heads the corporate immigration department at the Tel Aviv law firm Goldfarb, Gross, Seligman, said some firms face demands from non-Israeli shareholders and investors. These stakeholders are concerned about the viability of operating from Israel and are increasingly willing to shift parts of the workforce to North America or Europe. Schwartz traced this discontent to January 2023, when the government proposed judicial reforms that would have reduced the powers of the Supreme Court. He stated that these investors feel the Israeli government is no longer meeting its part of the social contract.

Avigail Ben-Porat, a 50-year-old single mother living in Kiryat Shmona near the Lebanese border, represents many who wish to leave but lack the financial means. She still hears rocket fire regularly and notes that many friends have moved to Portugal, Canada, Thailand, and India. Schwartz called the October vote a potential watershed for whether emigration rises, while Ater maintained that the stakes extend beyond Israel to the wider region and world.

The next scheduled step is the national election in October 2026. The results will determine which blocs enter coalition talks. The outcome will likely influence whether the trend of 99,000 departures over two years stabilizes or accelerates in the coming months.